When Kentucky loses in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, Duke hires away the Wildcats’ rising-star assistant coach and rival Louisville gives John Calipari’s former right-hand man its head-coaching job, Big Blue Nation has quite a few questions about the direction of the program. Go figure. When we put out the call for mailbag submissions last week, there were a number of duplicate or similar questions, and those have been grouped together here for brevity. So let’s dig in.

Is there any indication of who may replace Jai Lucas? — Matt P., Samuel W., Grayson H. and Benjamin R.

That is the most popular question here (and on Twitter), and I wish I had a more detailed answer for you than this: Calipari is keeping that hire extremely close to the vest. So close, in fact, that the rest of his staff doesn’t know yet exactly what he’s planning to do. What I do know is he’s searching far and wide, exploring every conceivable option, including some candidates on NBA staffs and at least a couple of outside-the-box possibilities. Might he consider a woman for the third full-time assistant’s job? Someone from the very Kentucky-flavored Miami Heat organization that is renowned for its scouting, culture and player development? Could it be a candidate with a connection to D.J. Wagner, the No. 1 recruit in 2023? I wouldn’t rule any of those out.

It’s interesting, though, that Calipari is being deliberately secretive about this hire. We should know something soon, because it is my understanding that he’d like to have the full staff in place by the time players return to campus to begin workouts the first week of June. His new strength and conditioning coach, Braden Welsh from Purdue, is already in Lexington and working to overhaul that aspect of the program, I’m told. Expect a different approach to the training regimen under Welsh, who will likely do something his predecessor did not: tap into the UK Sports Medicine Research Institute, housed in the old Nutter Training Facility, funded since 2017 by millions of dollars from the U.S. Department of Defense. That program focuses on injury prevention and performance optimization.

With Shaedon Sharpe’s recent workouts, there is little doubt he’ll be a top-10 pick and stay in the draft, but are there still rumblings from other agents petitioning for him to be ineligible based on the antics of his handler? What are the chances he’ll come back? How might this whole soap opera hurt Cal? — Todd W., Chris H. and James O.

It’s pretty apparent at this point that if Sharpe wants to be in this draft, the runway is clear for him, no matter what objections there might be from angry agents who don’t buy that he graduated high school last summer and waited until January to enroll at Kentucky. The NBA seems satisfied that he is eligible for the draft, otherwise it would not have allowed him to participate in last week’s combine, where he did as little as possible to allow scouts to evaluate his game. There definitely is some growing frustration in NBA circles that Sharpe, no doubt on the advice of his camp, has been unwilling to participate in anything that resembles actual basketball and be scrutinized before draft night. Even so, some team in the lottery is going to be too tantalized by his athleticism and potential to pass on him.

That is why Sharpe seemed to confirm in an exclusive interview with The Athletic’s Shams Charnia last week that he plans to stay in the 2022 draft — as expected, and as we reported weeks ago. The wildest thing: I’m told his family is still insisting to Calipari that it is possible he’ll return to school. That is beyond unlikely. And assuming Sharpe does stay in the draft, which we’ll know for certain in a week when the deadline to withdraw passes, it’ll be hard to reach any conclusion other than Calipari got played. I’m of the opinion it makes Sharpe (or at least his representatives) look bad, not Calipari. But he’ll certainly take some heat for not cutting through the BS and moving on from Sharpe a long time ago.

One point to make here: Taking Sharpe isn’t what cost Kentucky five-star guard Nick Smith, who is headed to Arkansas instead. Yes, Smith wanted to play for the Wildcats, and, yes, he was ready to commit alongside Cason Wallace at one time, but it was actually the presence of longtime commit Skyy Clark (another five-star guard who later decommitted) that stopped him.

Would you take the over or under on 2.5 years remaining for Calipari at Kentucky? And what level of success do you predict for the rest of his time in Lexington? — Chase P., Taylor S. and Ryan W.

I think I’m going to take the under. Which is to say I think he coaches two more seasons. Won’t shock me if it’s more, but I think that feels like the right number for a couple of reasons. One, after the 2023-24 season, Calipari’s latest contract says he can step down as coach, take over as a special assistant to the AD — basically a university ambassador — and still make a million bucks a year. That is some retirement plan. Two, that gives him this coming season (with a veteran roster and the reigning national player of the year) and the next to make another Final Four run and go out on a high note. That 2023-24 season would be a logical last stand, too, because he could be coaching Wagner, son of his first Memphis star, which he has long wanted to do. If he’s able to stave off Kenny Payne and Louisville to get Wagner, it’s one last ride with a No. 1 prospect, which tends to go well for Calipari. I absolutely think Calipari can get back to a Final Four before he calls it quits, and my hunch is he doesn’t want to walk away until he makes another deep run to prove he’s still got it.

If Cal retires tomorrow, who are the first 3-to-5 people Mitch calls to gauge interest? — John G.

Scott Drew, Mark Few, Eric Musselman and Brad Stevens. Make every one of them tell you no before considering anyone else. I know that at least two of the names on that list would have serious interest. And I’d say all of them are at least on Mitch Barnhart’s radar if he needs to make a hire in the relatively near future.

Does John Calipari care as much now as he did 10 years ago about the state of the University of Kentucky basketball program? — Ryan S.

I’d imagine it’s tough to be as driven at age 63, making more than $8 million a year with six Final Fours, a national championship and Naismith Hall of Fame induction, as the 50-year-old who arrived in Lexington in 2009 with two vacated Final Fours, no titles and a lot of folks wondering whether he was worthy of coaching a blueblood. It would be human nature to ease off the gas, or think success was just a given, after the insane run from 2010 through 2015 that Calipari and the Cats enjoyed. Being one shot away from a return to the Final Four in 2017 and 2019 probably also allowed Calipari to overlook some things that were slipping.

However, the last two years have been mighty humbling. A historically bad season in 2021 followed by a historically bad NCAA Tournament upset in 2022 — not to mention the criticism and doubt that comes with those failures — have surely lit a fresh fire under Kentucky’s coach. Whether it’s out of concern about the “state of the Kentucky program” or a selfish motivation to fire figurative middle fingers at his haters from atop a ladder in March, I’m thinking Calipari desperately wants to win big again.

Does Cal know he can utilize 13 scholarships when filling out the roster? — Ryan P.

This is definitely a point of frustration for some fans, that Kentucky only has 10 scholarship players (assuming Jacob Toppin comes back, and I’m confident he will). While I’d agree they could maybe use one more, just so a single injury doesn’t force you to use a walk-on for 5-on-5 practices, I think 10 is probably plenty. The reality is very few elite teams are going that deep into their bench. Just look at the last five NCAA champions.

This year, Kansas had six players average more than 12 minutes per game. In 2021, Baylor had six guys average more than 16 minutes. In 2019, Virginia had seven average 16-plus. In 2018, Villanova had six average over 14. In 2017, North Carolina had seven average 15-plus. Calipari’s title team at Kentucky in 2012 was just six-deep, and none of his best squads (except 2015) were more than eight-deep.

The bottom line is you need some injury luck to make a run. Any contending team that suffers a significant injury (or two) is probably doomed, even if they have a full roster. Because nobody on the end of your bench is making up for a lost star.

Give me a name out there (portal, reclass, etc.) that would make a ton of sense for Kentucky to add to the roster. Or is the roster set? — Curtis S., William L. and Antonio D.

I’ve maintained for a while now that the Cats are done with their roster unless some high-end pro prospect pulls out of the NBA Draft and falls into their lap. Calipari does not seem interested in taking just any decent player to pad his numbers and provide a little injury insurance. But I do think Kentucky would love to chat with at least three guys who entered the draft if the interest was mutual: Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Milwaukee), Matthew Mayer (Baylor) and Josh Minott (Memphis). But it sounds like Mayer is headed to UNC and Minott is leaning toward staying in the draft.

Baldwin would be very, very interesting as a 6-foot-9 wing who was a top-10 recruit in the Class of 2021 who bucked convention and went to play for his father, Pat Sr., at Milwaukee. The son struggled with injury and inefficiency there, however, and dad was fired. That adds a level of intrigue should Baldwin pull out of the draft, since Calipari still has that assistant coaching vacancy. Baldwin averaged 12.1 points and 5.8 rebounds, shot 34.4 percent from the field and 26.6 percent from 3-point range in 11 games as a freshman, but he’s still a high-upside prospect who would likely look much better surrounded by elite talent. Landing him feels like a long shot, but it’s probably the best chance left for Kentucky to add a game-changing piece.

What are your current expectations for the 2023 class? Do you think anyone commits in the next couple months? — Zach B.

Despite all the Louisville buzz because of the Payne connection (according to a report on Tuesday morning, the Cardinals were close to hiring Wagner’s grandfather, Milt, to an administrative position), I actually think Kentucky remains in great shape to land Wagner. And I think the Wildcats feel good about their chances to land both Wagner and Rob Dillingham, which would mean a backcourt of those two top-10 recruits plus homegrown five-star Reed Sheppard. Behind the scenes, Calipari is very, very confident that the Cats are going to load up with one of his old-school superclasses in this cycle. They’re also in the mix for top-10 forwards Matas Buzelis, JJ Taylor, Justin Edwards and Kwame Evans, and arguably the No. 1 center in the class, Aaron Bradshaw, who is Wagner’s teammate. Calipari recently offered fast-rising wing Andrej Stojakovic, son of former NBA star Peja, and he would be a really intriguing piece. Bottom line: I think it’s entirely possible Kentucky gets some mojo back and signs the top recruiting class again after watching Duke gobble up talent left and right under new coach Jon Scheyer.

What is your first game projected starting lineup? — Bob M.

I’d go Sahvir Wheeler, Cason Wallace, CJ Fredrick, Jacob Toppin and Oscar Tshiebwe. Two McDonald’s All-Americans on the bench? Well, I think freshman Chris Livingston (who can play the three or four) and sophomore Daimion Collins (who can play four or five) will absolutely challenge for starting jobs and could earn them at some point. But Day 1, I like the five that I listed. It’s super experienced, has enough shooting and loads of defense and athleticism. We haven’t even mentioned Illinois State transfer Antonio Reeves, one of the top scorers out of the portal, which speaks to the number of guys on this roster who can legitimately play. There might only be 10 scholarship guys, but they’re all legitimate SEC-level players.

Here’s a thought exercise: How does this group stack up against last season’s team, which when healthy looked like the best team in America?

Senior Sahvir Wheeler should be as good or better than junior Sahvir Wheeler, especially if he runs into fewer screens. Wallace is definitely a better defender than TyTy Washington and probably better overall — certainly better than a perpetually hobbled Washington. Fredrick, who led the Big Ten in 3-point percentage at Iowa, has a better stroke than Kellan Grady, and while injuries are a concern for Fredrick, we now know Grady finished last season on two bad feet. Reeves is a better all-around scorer than Davion Mintz.

Toppin, with another year to refine his freakish athleticism and no longer having to split time with Keion Brooks, could have a breakout senior season. (He’s worked out for about half a dozen NBA teams, all of whom are advising him to give it another year in school to see if he can’t become a first-rounder next summer.) Tshiebwe is coming back to school with every national player of the year trophy piled up in his dorm room and driven by the disappointment of a first-round NCAA exit and the NBA telling him he still wasn’t good enough to be a first-round pick. Collins is the rare top-15 recruit who understood he was raw and needed another year — and hoo boy, is his length and athleticism intriguing. Livingston is coming off a great season at prep powerhouse Oak Hill, has a college-ready body and would be the jewel of most programs’ recruiting class. There was a time when folks wondered whether he might be the best high school player in the country. So that’s a lot to work with. And how about Lance Ware? The former top-50 recruit is back for his junior year as a very capable backup to Tshiebwe.

Yes, Kentucky could always use another shooter. But there are not any real glaring holes in that roster.

Do you think Calipari will change how he addresses the fan base in the wake of the 2020-21 debacle and the loss to Saint Peter’s? He has always been patronizing to the Big Blue Nation, but those comments have gotten much more frequent in recent years and the BBN is much less likely to overlook them now that Cal’s results have fallen significantly in 2015. — Joshua T.

I hear this complaint a lot these days, too. The thing about Cal’s personality is when he’s winning big, we call it Swaggy Cal and everyone seems to love it. Strut, baby, strut. Cue the Vince McMahon GIFs. But when he’s losing, a guy like that can’t just flip a switch and turn it off. He is who he is, authentically arrogant. So the one-liners keep coming, for the 1,000th and 2,000th time, and they just hit different when the team stinks or Calipari’s team has just fallen apart at the end of a promising season. My advice to him would be take all of his standard material and throw it out. Just don’t use any of those old zingers, don’t say anything that sounds like a shot at the fans, and don’t be coy. It’s perfectly reasonable — for competitive and privacy reasons — not to talk about injuries with any specificity. But just say that’s your policy and cut out the “haven’t seen him” thing. Calipari thinks this is a funny little gag, and it is harmless, but fans clearly hate it. So just take the easy win and stop doing it.

To answer your question, though, no, I don’t expect Cal to take my advice and stop doing that.

This team likely faces the most pressure to deliver a Final Four appearance since 1978. Do you agree? And do you think Cal has any sense or is he oblivious as it seems? — Brandon M.

I think everyone involved in the program feels an extreme sense of urgency. I don’t think back in 2015, when Calipari had led UK to four Final Fours in five years, anyone would’ve believed it would be at least eight years before the Cats got back there. Adolph Rupp’s longest gap between Final Fours was eight years. Then it was nine years between Rupp’s last one and Joe B. Hall’s first one in ‘75. And nine years between Hall’s last one and Rick Pitino’s first in 1993. The longest gap in program history was 13 years between Tubby Smith’s national championship in 1998 and Calipari’s first Final Four in 2011. All of this to say, we’re kind of in the historical sweet spot for fans to get antsy about the drought. The pressure is definitely on Calipari to get back there with the returning player of the year and as much talent on paper as any team in the country.

Any word on the Bahamas trip? — Jesse C.

Only that the plan is still to make that trip at some point in August and play a few games against international competition. I’m not sure what the holdup is on finalizing details and getting that information to fans, but at last check the Bahamas trip is happening.

Any update on Cal’s chat with Barnhart about facility upgrades for basketball? Where does Cal stand with Barnhart and the administration? — Adam Z., Paul A. and Brian D.

Calipari mentioned on a radio appearance shortly after the season ended that he planned to sit down with Barnhart and discuss some much-needed investments in the program. It seems like just yesterday that the Joe Craft Center opened and the new Wildcat Lodge went up next door, but it’s been over a decade for both, and in the never-ending college sports arms race, that’s an eternity. Those things can get (and have gotten) dated in a hurry. Many other UK programs have received major facility upgrades more recently, especially the football program with big-ticket items like a stadium renovation and new practice facility, and Calipari made the point that visitors lately have marveled at the fact the basketball program — the university’s crown jewel — might have the athletic department’s least-impressive buildings. Barnhart probably doesn’t want to get strong-armed by a coach whose own performance is lagging, but Calipari isn’t wrong about the need. As for how that meeting went, I don’t believe it has actually happened yet. Calipari has been out of town with his family (and on the road recruiting) almost the entire time since making those comments.

(Top photo of John Calipari: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)